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What SHAL we Talk About Today II

More Structured Hand Analysis

OK This Question is posed By MEDS from BadBeat.
Has he made the correct bet AND call on the Flop in this hand.

Scenario
5 Players left in a $50 STT
Blinds 50-100
MEDS in BB
(MEDS doesn’t give stack sizes so I’ll have to make certain assumptions)

Assumptions:
1) Normal 10 handed STT with starting Stacks of 1000
2) 5 Players Left SO I’ll assume each player has an average stack of 2000
3) Flop is Rainbow (Meds doesn’t mention the flop’s color texture)
4) Normal Payout Structure of 1st =$250 2nd =$150 3rd=$100


UTG, MP, and Button ALL Fold.
SB calls 50 thus the pot is now 200.
MEDS in BB raises 200 to 300 with K3sooted.
SB calls the 200 raise. Pot is now 600.

FLOP: K 10 5
SB Checks.
MEDS Bets 300 (stating that he always continuation bets in this situation whether he has a monster, a moderate hand or nothing)
SB reraises ALLIN.
MEDS calls.

Turn: Q
River: 9
Final Board: K 10 5 Q 9
MEDS shows A Pair of Kings
SB shows J10 and wins with a straight.

OK I won’t get into how you got yourself to this flop with K3. Lets just say your there and you have bet 300 and now face the decision of whether to call the allin or not.

When you are facing the allin bet the pot is now 2600 (2x300 preflop +2x300 postflop + 1400allin raise)

So you are getting 2600/1400 = odds of 1.86 to 1 for your call. Thus, you need to win in this scenario 35% of the time for this to be a break even calling proposition. This being a STT which are available at all times in endless numbers my inclination is that you will call every time you are in this situation and have a +EV.

OK Lets look at possible hands you are up against

Hands that Are CRUSHING YOU
KK wins 100% you win 0%
1010 wins 98.7% you win 1.3%
55 wins 98.4% you win 1.6%
K10 wins 98.5% you win 1.5%
K5 wins 91.25% you win 8.75%
10 5 wins 75.45% you win 24.55%

Assuming that the chance of your opponent having any of these hands is equally likely
(An assumption with legs if we think that the chance of him slowplaying KK like he did is as likely as getting action from the SB with 10-5)

You win (37.7/6)= 6.3% of the time.

Other Hands Ahead of You
AKs wins 89.9% you win 10.1%
AKo wins 89.1% you win 10.9%
KQs wins 88.7% you win 11.3%
KQo wins 87.9% you win 12.1%
KJs wins 87.6% you win 12.4%
KJo wins 86.8% you win 13.2%
K9s wins 78.2% you win 21.8%
K9o wins 77.6% you win 22.4%
K8s wins 74.4% you win 25.6%
K8o wins 73.6% you win 26.4%
K7s wins 70.5% you win 29.5%
K7o wins 68.7% you win 31.3%
K6s wins 66% you win 34%
K6o wins 63.9% you win 36.1%
K4s wins 53.1% you win 46.9%
K4o wins 50.5% you win 49.5%

Assuming that all of these other hands are equally likely,
(a very aggressive assumption in that since there has been a raise preflop it tends to leave greater chances of the bigger hands being against you)
you win (393.5/16) = 24.6% of the time.


Other Reasonable Hands You are beating
AQs wins 31.2% you win 68.8%
AQo wins 27.7% you win 72.3%
QJs wins 36.9% you win 63.1%
QJo wins 34.2% you win 65.8%
A10s wins 26.3% you win 73.7%
A10o wins 21.8% you win 78.2%
Q10s wins 25.9% you win 74.1%
Q10o wins 21.6% you win 78.4%
J10s wins 25.9% you win 74.1%
J10o wins 21.6% you win 78.4%
A5s wins 26.3% you win 73.7%
A5o wins 21.8% you win 78.2%
QQ wins 12% you win 88%
JJ wins 12% you win 88%

Assuming these reasonable hands are all equally likely,
(Once again an aggressive assumption since the preflop raise tends to leave a higher chance of the better hands sticking around)
You win (1054.8/14)= 75.34% of the time.

Absolute Bluffs
(Below just supplied as example of clear bluffs)
45s wins 22.9% you win 77.1%
45o wins 18.4% you win 81.6%
89s wins 10.6% you win 89.4%
89o wins 6.4% you win 93.6%

Assume the Absolute bluffs will all land with low probability wins but some off chance of escape to a victory.
You win (341.7/4) = 85.53% of the time.

OK. Now lets decide what chance of each grouping exists.
Crushers: 15%
Other Hands (Beating You): 50%
Reasonable Hands (Your ahead): 25%
Absolute Bluffs: 10%

Doing some quick maths
[(.15 X 6.3%) + (.50 X 24.6%) + (.25 X 75.34%) + (.10 X 85.53%)]
= 40.61% win chances all things considered

OK. At the start I said the pot odds dictate that you only need a 35% win rate to break even. With 40.6%, it looks a clear call. BUT! This number is sensitive to the assumptions AND the stack sizes which were not provided. So It is better to look at that 40.6% number more as a range from 40.6% to 30.6%. Thus you are almost dead break even and your decisions should be influenced by other influences such as player history (aggressive, tight, passive, etc.)

SUMMARY
You have got yourself into a funky situation playing a big pot with KX. When you get serious action you’re not sure where you are in the hand even after hitting the flop. MY best recommendation is that if you were going to call the checkraise in the first place you should have bet a more meaningful amount on the flop to indicate to your opponent that the chances of him making you fold with an allin diminish rapidly as the size of your bet goes up.

Happy Hunting!

MadYank